How much money do you actually need to take this job and shove it?
Go on, admit it: You've thought about it. Maybe you've imagined quitting your job and easing into early or semi-retirement -- or starting your own business.
It's a perennial topic, but it's especially timely now. Millions are either unemployed or working part-time. Millions more fear their job could be next.
Obviously there are a legion of complicating factors involved in anyone's decision. Sherrill St. Germain, a financial planner in Hollis, N.H. with a lot experience in the field, says the big issue for many clients is losing group health insurance. 'That's the thing that keeps them stuck,' she says. 'That's the deal-breaker.' Say what you will about healthcare reform: The present system is a huge drag on economic mobility and entrepreneurship.
But even if you can surmount all the other complications involved in escaping your current situation, how much money would you need to have saved up to make it a viable idea?
Most financial planners have advice on the subject, but Troy Thompson's is as good a place to start as any, because it comes from experience. He left his job as a lawyer at a large firm in San Francisco to start out on his own as an independent financial planner in Portland, Ore.
'What's the cash in your pocket that you need to check out of the rat race?' Mr. Thompson asks. 'I decided I had to have two years' worth of (living) costs…in very liquid, easily accessible assets.' He figured he had to cover a lot of transition costs. That included moving expenses, legacy costs (like the remainder of his lease in his old home), and enough money to support his expenses while he changed careers and ramped up his new business. Saving up to two years' worth of costs may sound daunting. But here's the good news: If you are making this kind of move, you are probably moving from a high-cost part of the country, like San Francisco or New York, to one of the cheaper ones. And your money will go a lot further there.
A dollar may go twice as far in Austin, Texas or Portland as in Manhattan. Obviously everyone's numbers are different. Here are some other questions to consider:
What kind of escape are you planning (or dreaming about)? Are you just going to change jobs or are you planning to change careers? Or are you really wondering if you can check out- take early retirement, or maybe semi-retirement? The money you'll need is going to be completely different for each one. Ms. St. Germain gives clients some scenarios: A mid-level military man happy to live on his pension while searching for a new job may not need anything. A highly-paid executive who wants to downshift to a lower-paid job may need a lot to help supplement her transition and future income. Net result: Your 'escape fund,' as Ms. St. Germain calls it, can be anywhere from zero to a large pile of cash to supplement your income indefinitely.
How far will your savings get you over the long term? Someone investing their savings conservatively should certainly be able to earn about 3% a year over inflation. If you want to withdraw $10,000 a year and make it last for, say, thirty years, you will probably need to have about $200,000, or twenty times as much, saved up now. Anyone giving serious thought to the idea of escaping is going to need to take a hard look at their expenses. 'It's all a game of cash flow, in or out,' says Mitchell Reiner, a financial planner in Atlanta. One of his clients, a senior executive in Atlanta, recently managed his escape: He and his wife threw in their expensive lifestyle and took early retirement to the mountains. But they axed their monthly expenses in half, from $7,000 to $3,500.
The biggest saving was simply on real estate: Mortgage, property taxes, insurance and other expenses. They sold their expensive home and moved somewhere cheap.
What can you live without? It's a truism but worth repeating: Most middle-class household budgets can be cut. The most common advice is to look at your current expenditures and see where you can pare back. But if you really want to escape, the more radical idea is zero-based accounting: Start with a blank piece of paper, and see what you would need to spend to be comfortable.
'The problem with people nowadays is that a 'necessity' is any luxury your neighbor happens to have,' jokes Ernie Zelinski, a frugal living guru and author of 'The Joy of Not Working and How To Retire Happy Wild and Free.' He adds, 'We can all live on less than you think.'
You might not want to go as far as Mr. Zelinski-'I don't own a cellphone, I drive a '95 Camry, and for two years I lived without a sofa,' he says-but the principles he espouses aren't crazy. 'You're financially independent if you have $15,000 coming in and $14,900 going out,' he says.
How much do you need to be free? Maybe you should ask instead: How much do you really want to be free?
你到底需要多少錢才會把手頭這項工作扔掉?
好了,還是承認吧:你想過這個問題。或許你曾想像辭職、悠閑地過起早退或半退休的生活,或是自己開公司當老板。
這是一個永久的話題,但在眼下卻尤其合時宜。美國有數百萬人不是失業,就是在做兼職,另外還有數百萬人擔心飯碗不保。
顯然,任何人作出的決定都牽涉到一大堆復雜的因素。紐約州理財顧問杰曼(Sherrill St. Germain)在這個方面有著豐富的經驗。她說,對很多客戶來說,主要問題是擔心失去集體健康保險。她說,就是這個使他們難以邁出那一步,就是這個把事 情攪黃了。說說你對醫療改革的想法:現有體制對經濟的流動性和創業精神都是個阻礙。
但是,即使你能超越所有其他使你無法擺脫現狀的羈絆,要想把想法變成現實,你需要攢多少錢才行?
大部分理財顧問都會就這個問題提出建議,但湯姆森(Troy Thompson)的建議卻是不錯的起點,因為他的建議是基于自己的經驗。他曾是舊金山一家大公司的律師,辭職之后開始在俄勒岡{做獨立理財顧問。
湯姆森問道,你需要口袋里有多少現金才會逃脫你爭我奪的生活?我認為我必須要夠兩年生活成本的……流動性很強、容易變現的資產。他認為他需要滿足許多過渡 成本,這包括搬遷費用、遺留成本(如過去房屋的剩余租金),以及足夠前在他改變職業和開展新業務期間支撐他的開支。節約相當于兩年成本的錢也許聽起來O人 望而生畏。但是還有個好消息:如果你要做出這種改變,你可能會從舊金山或紐約等美國高成本的地區搬到物價更低的一個地方。你的錢在那里將會更加值錢。
在得克薩斯州奧斯汀或波特蘭,一美元可能相當于曼哈頓的兩美元。顯然,每個人的數字是不同的。以下是一些要考慮的問題:
你正在計劃(或夢想)哪種逃生辦法?你是只打算換工作還是打算改變職業?或者,你真的想知道你是否退出──提前退休或是半退休?你需要的錢將會同每個人完 全不同。杰曼給客戶描述了一些情況:一位可憑借退休金安居樂業的中層軍官尋找新工作時可能不需要任何東西。一位高薪管理人員如果想降格到底薪的工作,那她 可能需要一大筆錢補充她過渡期間和今后的收入。最終結果是:杰曼所說的"逃生"基金可能從零到一大筆現金才能補充你不確定的收入。
從長期來看你的儲蓄會讓你堅持多久?保守投資者每年的收益應會比通貨膨脹率高出3%左右。如果你想每年撤出1萬美元,并持續比如30年,你現在可能需要儲 蓄大約20萬美元,或1萬美元的20倍。任何認真考慮逃跑想法的人都需要好好研究下他們的開支。亞特蘭大金融規劃師雷納(Mitchell Reiner)說,這完全是一個現金流入或流出的游戲。他的一個客戶是亞特蘭的高管,這個人最近設計了他的逃生計劃:他和妻子放棄昂貴的生活方式,提前退 休回到山區。但他們將月開支砍掉了一半,從7,000美元降到3,500美元。
最大的結余都在房地產上:抵押貸款、物業稅、保險和其他開支。他們賣了昂貴的房子,搬到了便宜的地方。
你能離開什么繼續生活?這是一個老生常談但值得重復的問題:大多數中產階級家庭預算都能削減。最普通的建議是看看你目前的支出,研究一下能從哪里削減。但是,如果你真的想逃生,更激進的想法是從零開始核算:用一張白紙開始,看看你要舒適都需要什么支出。
儉樸生活大師、《樂在不工作》(The Joy of Not Working and How To Retire Happy Wild and Free)一書的作者澤林斯基(Ernie Zelinski)開玩笑說,人們目前的問題是節儉的人正好有個生活奢侈的鄰居。他還說,我們生活所需要的都能比你認為的更少。
你可能不想像澤林斯基那樣生活──他說,我沒有手機,我開一輛95年的豐田凱美瑞,兩年來我都沒有沙發──但是他所奉行的原則并不瘋狂。他說,如果你的進項是15,000美元,而你的支出是14,900美元,你就是經濟獨立的。
你究竟需要多少才能自由?或許應該這樣問:你究竟想要多少才能自由?